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2024-12-24

• We Need More Three Mile Islands
  by André Béliveau in Hit & Run blog, 2024-12-24 11:30:15 UTC

  Jane Fonda isn't a nuclear expert, but she played one on TV. In the 1979 film The China Syndrome , Fonda portrayed Kimberly Wells, a vivacious news reporter who discovered a cover-up at a nuclear power plant. The conspiracy involved the possibility of a meltdown that could "render an area the size of Pennsylvania permanently uninhabitable."  The movie's timing and location were both impeccable. Twelve days after Fonda's film hit theaters, a reactor at Three Mile Island (TMI) in central Pennsylvania partially melted down. The accident resu [...]

2024-12-21

• Belief in a lottery curse is comforting, but winning lots of money does make you happy | Martha Gill
  by ? in Science news, comment and analysis | theguardian.com, 2024-12-21 17:30:22 UTC

  The notion that vast windfalls inevitably bring misery is based on a handful of sad casesDoes winning the lottery wreck your life? When an anonymous Briton won £177m in the EuroMillions draw last month – making them the third biggest national lottery winne [...]

2024-12-20

• The US Economy’s Trust Deficit
  by Michael Spence in Project Syndicate, 2024-12-20 16:47:48 UTC

  MILAN – While official sources and the media highlight strong consumer-spending and jobs data in the United States, or tout high US stock-market valuations , more than three-quarters of Americans view economic conditions as poor (36%) or fair (41%). This disconnect between performance and perception can have far-reaching consequences; it already helped to propel Donald Trump to victory in last month’s presidential election. So, what is causing it? Here, it is worth considering how market participants deal with asymmetric information – when one party has more or better information than anothe [...]

2024-12-09

• Employer-to-employer transitions : Data from the Philadelphia Fed
  by ? in FRED blog, 2024-12-09 14:00:00 UTC

  Workers switch employers for several reasons, including better opportunities and pay. Working for one employer one month and a different employer the next is known as employer-to-employer worker transition . FRED recently added new data from Fujita, Moscarini, and Postel-Vinay (FMP) that track these transitions: The Employer-to-Employer (E2E) Transition Probability data, from the Philadelphia Fed, show how likely US workers are to engage in the practice of switching employers. The FRED graph above shows the FMP-E2E data series presented in three formats: seasonally adjusted (orange line), not [...]

2024-12-08

• Current account reversals
  by Alberto Bagnai in Goofynomics, 2024-12-08 21:51:00 UTC

  Avrei molte cose da dirvi, su vari argomenti. Siamo in un momento particolarmente lurido, quello che Claudio aveva magistralmente descritto dodici anni or sono : (purtroppo la fonte originale, cioè il suo intervento a "L'Ultima Parola", non sono in grado di fornirvela), e i cambi di paradigma (per dirla con un termine che vi diventerà familiare fra una settimana), o, se vogliamo, i voltafaccia, sono all'ordine del giorno. Potrei parlarvi del Giavazzo bifronte (e in effetti dal 25 aprile scorso ho in bozza un post così intitolato...), potrei parlarvi di come le istituzioni europee confessano se [...]

2024-11-22

• Why Subsidizing Energy Efficency Is a Bad Idea
  by Kenneth W. Costello in The Beacon, 2024-11-22 01:04:37 UTC

  Many state utility regulators, policymakers, utilities, and others construct an orthodox and politically palatable argument that market failure justifies utility energy efficiency (EE) programs and that the vast majority of those programs would pass a cost-benefit test. (Incidentally, the alleged major culprits of market failure are energy consumers incapable of making the correct calculations from a societal perspective, or making decisions contrary to their self-interest. That so-called “ EE gap ” provides the raison d’etre for both government and utility subsidies to encourage the adoption [...]

2024-11-05

• To Prosper, India Must Close Its Gender Employment Gap
  by Kanika Mahajan in Project Syndicate, 2024-11-05 14:34:16 UTC

  NEW DELHI – While female workforce participation consistently lags behind men’s globally, there are deep regional disparities, with the largest gender employment gaps found in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and South Asia. India is a striking example of this dynamic. Among women aged 25-60 in rural areas, the labor-market participation rate dropped sharply from 54% in 1980 to 31% in 2017 (National Sample Survey (1980) and Periodic Labor Force Survey (2017)). In urban areas, the decline has been less dramatic, from 26% to 24%. Meanwhile, male employment rates remained relatively stab [...]

2024-10-29

• 99. Informe IDEE-24-3: Recursos de personal sanitario en España y otros 5 países europeos
  by Euro American Association EAAEDS in Economía y desarrollo de España y Galicia, 2024-10-29 17:11:00 UTC

  Esta tabla muestra datos de recursos sanitarios en 6 países europeos. y la siguiente tabla muestra algunos indicadores de resultados de la actividad sanitaria según la Encuesta Europea   EHCI  (Euro-Health Consumer Index). Suiza aparece como el país de la tabla con mayor presupuesto de gasto en salud por habitante (con más de 7000 Dólares), seguido por Alemania y Francia (con más de 5000 Dólares). Reino Unido presenta un valor menor (con más de 4000 Dólares) y le siguen Italia y España con menos de 4000.  El bajo presupuesto de España en comparación con Suiza, Alemania y Francia, tiene como un [...]

2024-10-11

• Can Claudia Sheinbaum Escape AMLO’s Shadow?
  by Guillermo Ortiz in Project Syndicate, 2024-10-11 13:05:20 UTC

  MEXICO CITY – When Andrés Manuel López Obrador was elected president of Mexico in 2018, the question was which AMLO – as he is commonly known – would govern. Would he be the pragmatic politician who had pledged fiscal rectitude, advocated free trade, and supported an independent central bank? Or would he be a populist leader who, like the authoritarian Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) of the 1970s and 1980s, would seek to co-opt voters through enormous social programs and giveaways and expand the role of state enterprises? AMLO’s presidency preserved economic stability by adhering to [...]

2024-10-10

• Study Reveals a Striking Health Disparity Between US And UK Adults
  by ? in Science Alert, 2024-10-10 10:00:20 UTC

  What's going on? [...]

2024-09-19

• ¿Deuda paga deuda?
  by Elisa Failache in Razones y personas: repensando Uruguay, 2024-09-19 19:14:00 UTC

  ¿Deuda paga deuda? Reflexiones sobre el mercado de crédito y la situación de endeudamiento de las personas en Uruguay Por Elisa Failache ¿Cuántas personas tienen algún vínculo con el mercado de crédito? ¿Este número se ha ido incrementando en el tiempo? ¿Para qué usan las personas los créditos? ¿En qué condiciones las personas se endeudan? El acceso al mercado de crédito puede ser una oportunidad de mejoras en la situación socioeconómica de las personas, así como un motor del desarrollo económico de los países. Sin embargo, también puede esconder problemas sociales, así como generar efectos [...]

• Women’s labor force participation by age
  by ? in FRED blog, 2024-09-19 13:00:00 UTC

  Women have increased their representation in the labor force over time. In this post, we discuss how this process has differed by age group. The FRED graph above tracks women’s share among the employed for two age groups: 20-24 years old and 35-44 years old. Women in both age groups have increased their share of employment since 1950, although growth slowed considerably after 1990. In the younger group, women account for about 50% of total employment today, implying that young women are just as likely to work as young men. In the older group, which includes a greater representation of the mar [...]

2024-09-13

• Education makes women, not men, more likely to have children
  by ? in LSE Business Review, 2024-09-13 04:00:05 UTC

  Given the wide-ranging consequences of declining fertility rates, academics and policymakers around the world are increasingly interested in understanding what influences men’s and women’s decision to start a family. Hanna Virtanen, Mikko Silliman, Tiina K [...]

2024-09-11

• 55. IDER. International Development Reports 2021-2024. Euro-American Association of Economic Development Studies
  by MCG Blogs de Economía in Euro-American Association: World Development, 2024-09-11 13:06:00 UTC

  Reports of year 2024 Reports of year 2023 In Entry 47 we include the titles and links to the following International Development Reports of years 2021 and 2022 � IDER INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT REPORTS year 2022 2022-4 Quality of Life in Countries and Regions of Europe, America, Asia and Oceania: Subjective and Objective Indicators, 2000-2020 , Guisan, M.C.� Abstract and article in RSES 22-2. 2022-3 CO2 Total Emissions in the World 1970-2015: Europe, United States, China, India and other countries. 2022-2 L [...]

2024-09-07

• The end of the great order under the Heaven
  by Branko Milanovic in globalinequality, 2024-09-07 19:54:00 UTC

  The very well-written and easy to read book by Gary Gerstle ( The Rise and Fall of the Neoliberal Order ) makes two key points. First, and continuing from Gerstle’s previous book ( The Rise and Fall of the New Deal Order , coauthored with Steve Fraser) it insists on the idea of a political and economic “order”. An “order” is the ruling ideology at a given point in time, synthesized and propagated by the most important parts of the political establishment. There were, according to Gerstle two such political orders in the United States during the past century: the New Deal order that began with [...]

2024-08-29

• Changes in gasoline and automobile prices since the pandemic
  by ? in FRED blog, 2024-08-29 13:00:00 UTC

  Gasoline and gas-powered vehicles are complementary goods: They’re expected to be bought together. When all else is held constant, a change in the price of gasoline should have a predictable impact on the demand for cars and trucks—which, by extension, would change their price. For example, when gasoline prices fall, it’s relatively cheaper to drive gas-powered vehicles. So, we’d expect their demand and price to rise. Today’s post looks into recent consumer price index data to see if that is in fact the story behind the numbers. The FRED graph above shows the year-over-year percent growth rat [...]

2024-08-22

• The end of the great order under the Heaven
  by Branko Milanovic in Global Inequality and More, 2024-08-22 22:18:58 UTC

  The very well-written and easy to read book by Gary Gerstle ( The Rise and Fall of the Neoliberal Order ) makes two key points. First, and continuing from Gerstle’s previous book ( The Rise and Fall of the New Deal Order , coauthored with Steve Fraser) it insists on the idea of a political and economic “order”. An “order” is the ruling ideology at a given point in time, synthesized and propagated by the most important parts of the political establishment. There were, according to Gerstle two such political orders in the United States during the past century: the New Deal order that began with [...]

2024-08-08

• Remote work and women’s labor force participation : New insights from a FEDS note
  by ? in FRED blog, 2024-08-08 13:00:00 UTC

  The FRED Blog has discussed the impact that shortages in childcare services had on women’s employment during and immediately after the COVID-19 induced recession . Today we discuss the potential role that either remote or hybrid work might play in boosting the participation of women in the labor force. The FRED graph above shows the labor force participation rate of three groups of women: White women (the solid blue line); Black or African American women (the solid red line); and Hispanic or Latino women (the solid green line). The data are reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and [...]

• America is missing a golden opportunity to boost the job market
  by estewart@insider.com (Emily Stewart) in Business Insider, 2024-08-08 09:57:03 UTC

  Getty Images; Alyssa Powell/BI Picture this: You're walking down the grocery aisle in 2009. A carton of eggs costs about $1.60, and a pound of ground beef is $2.13. The typical home for sale across the street is about $214,000. Flash forward to today, and the prices for those same goods have shot up to $2.71, $5.47, and $412,000. Prices are up about 45% across the board. But the one thing that has stayed constant? The federal minimum wage , which has been stuck at $7.25 an hour for 15 years. You can see the issue: People making the mandated minimum have far less purchasing power than they once [...]

• WAPE 2024
  by michael roberts in Michael Roberts Blog, 2024-08-08 07:49:30 UTC

  Last weekend the 17 th Congress of the World Association of Political Economy (WAPE) took place in Athens, Greece.  WAPE is a Chinese-run academic economics organisation, linking up with Marxist economists globally. “Even though that might seem like bias, the WAPE forums and journals still provide an important outlet to discuss all the developments in the world capitalist economy from a Marxist perspective. Marxist economists from all over the world are welcome to join WAPE and attend WAPE forums.” (WAPE mission statement). I covered the 15 th Congress in Shanghai watching online panels.   [...]

2024-08-07

• On an unknown element of the Eurosystem monetary governance
  by Sergio Cesaratto in Politica&EconomiaBlog, 2024-08-07 15:14:00 UTC

     Published by: https://braveneweurope.com/sergio-cesaratto-sharing-central-banks-costs-and-profits-of-monetary-policy-in-the-euro-area Sergio Cesaratto - Sharing Central Banks’ costs and profits of monetary policy in the euro area (Adapted for Brave New Europe from Lavoce.info ) ; the author thanks Giancarlo Bergamini for help in editing the translation). A debate has developed in Europe (on Vox.eu and elsewhere) on the fiscal costs related to the interest payments that central banks in the eurozone are bestowing on commercial banks, a result of the way monetary policy is currently conduc [...]

• Danni collaterali del rialzo dei tassi
  by Sergio Cesaratto in Politica&EconomiaBlog, 2024-08-07 15:09:00 UTC

     Da https://lavoce.info/archives/102685/danni-collaterali-del-rialzo-dei-tassi/ Si veda anche "Annotazioni sull’implementazione della politica monetaria: ieri, oggi, domani"   https://rosa.uniroma1.it/rosa04/moneta_e_credito/article/view/18590 La condivisione di costi e profitti della politica monetaria nell’euro area Sergio Cesaratto Un mio precedente intervento su La Voce , seguito poi da uno di Hamaui , riprendeva un dibattito già sviluppato in sede europea (su Vox.eu ed altrove) sui costi fiscali relativi agli interessi che le banche centrali dell’area euro stanno erogando alle banch [...]

2024-07-26

• Will AI Kill Off Money?
  by Jean-Pierre Landau in Project Syndicate, 2024-07-26 09:05:25 UTC

  PARIS – We have forgotten the true virtues of money. We commonly view it in purely instrumental terms – as a device that facilitates exchange and stores value over time. Compared to bartering, coins and paper currency are profoundly convenient. But money is more than just an instrument. As Fyodor Dostoevsky famously observed , “money is minted freedom.” It supports our existence as autonomous individuals in a decentralized economy. The situation will be very different, however, if we someday live in a world governed by an artificial intelligence endowed with complete information and infinite [...]

• Excellente initiative grenobloise sur la réplication de données publiées en économie : à généraliser aux autres sciences ?
  by ? in Revues et intégrité, 2024-07-26 04:00:41 UTC

  C’est une des newsletter de TheMetaNews (5 juillet 2024) qui rapporte une expérience géniale lors d’une réunion d’économistes à Grenoble fin juin 2024. Ce que les économistes font est un exemple pour d’autres disciplines scientifiqu [...]

2024-07-09

• Breaking the Mould: Reimagining India’s Economic Future – review
  by Dalton,A in LSE Review of Books, 2024-07-09 11:00:57 UTC

  In Breaking the Mould, Raghuram Rajan and Rohit Lamba put forward an alternative path for India’s economy based on service sector growth, human capital investment and a less restrained market. Though she credits the book’s lucid style and the boldness of its vision, Areesha Khan finds that its economic strategy lacks a robust grounding and ultimately fails to convince. Breaking the Mould: Reimagining India’s Economic Future . Raghuram Rajan and Rohit Lamba. Penguin Business (India). 2023. As the title suggests, Breaking the Mould: Reimagining India’s Economic Future by Raghuram Rajan and Roh [...]

2024-06-27

• Empirical Estimates of Loss Aversion
  by Jason Shafrin in Healthcare Economist, 2024-06-27 00:12:25 UTC

  Kahneman and Tversky’s Prospect Theory posit that individuals have loss aversion. What is loss aversion? It means that individuals experience losses more intensely than gains of the same magnitude; for instance, the psychological impact of losing a certain amount of money is greater than the pleasure derived from gaining that same amount. A key question is how much more intensely to individuals experience gains than losses? To formalize things, prospect theory assumes the following utility function: The most widely cited estimates are for these parameters are from Tversky and Kahn [...]

2024-05-23

• L’avidifiante inégalité économique (épisode 285)
  by ? in Cerveau en argot, 2024-05-23 16:00:43 UTC

  Vivre dans un pays économiquement inégalitaire pourrait altérer le rapport à l’autre et à l’argent. Au sein d’un pays, l’inégalité économique – qui peut se définir comme la répartition inégale des ressources tels que les revenus et la richesse – [...]

2024-05-17

• How Black teachers lost when civil rights won in Brown v. Board
  by ? in Successful Black Parenting, 2024-05-17 15:23:54 UTC

  Discover how the Brown v. Board ruling led to a decline in Black teachers and explore solutions to increase teacher diversity and improve outcomes for Black students. The post How Black teachers lost when civil rights won in Brown v. Board appeared first o [...]

2024-05-16

• Ice cream is a seasonal product, right?
  by ? in FRED blog, 2024-05-16 13:00:00 UTC

  We have published this post in mid-May, which seems like the time people would start indulging in ice cream. It’s not quite “I scream for ice cream” time, but the days are getting sufficiently warm to warrant stocking up cool treats. And ice cream is the quintessential seasonal product that is only in demand when it’s hot out. Right? Just look at the FRED graph for ice cream production: A classic example of seasonality! But wait… These data are very old. How does it look if we use current data? The FRED graph below shows ice cream production since 1972 (in red). Yes, it is still seasonal, but [...]

2024-05-08

• The usefulness of the CMIE household survey data for electricity research in India
  by Anurodh in Ajay Shah's blog, 2024-05-08 08:35:00 UTC

  by Susan Das, Renuka Sane and Ajay Shah. Measurement for electricity research The problems of the electricity system are of particular importance in India given that the existing institutional arrangements work relatively poorly. While this has been a concern for decades given the importance of electricity in economic growth, it has achieved a fresh prioritisation due to the need for a clean energy transition. The problems of electricity sector have become the critical bottleneck for the decarbonisation of the economy (Jaitly and Shah, 2021). De jure government subsidies, and de facto [...]

2024-05-05

• Di nuovo su TARGET2
  by Sergio Cesaratto in Politica&EconomiaBlog, 2024-05-05 17:42:00 UTC

     Pubblicato su BRAVE NEW EUROPE The endless TARGET2 saga Sergio Cesaratto, Eladio Febrero, George Pantelopoulos * TARGET2 imbalances seem to be an endless source of controversy. At the beginning of the last decade, Hans Werner Sinn claimed that T2 imbalances served to fund current account deficits forgetting the responsibility of German mercantilism. Last week Eurointelligence raised the question of presumed onerous interest payments burdening the southern countries with TARGET2 liabilities to the advantage of northern countries. This post shows that this is false, as TARGET2 imbalances d [...]

2024-04-29

• The range of bank deposits worldwide
  by ? in FRED blog, 2024-04-29 13:00:00 UTC

  Safe and sound banks are key to a healthy US economy and are at the heart of promoting growth and development . Banks’ basic intermediary function of matching savers with investors is predicated on receiving deposits that can be transformed into loans. There is no rule of thumb for how large those deposits need to be for banks to best operate as financial intermediaries, and there are large differences among countries in that regard. The FRED map shows data from the World Bank about the value of bank deposits by nation divided by the value of that nation’s gross domestic product (GDP). This i [...]

2024-04-26

• Assessing regulatory capability in Tamil Nadu electricity regulation: Evidence from appeals
  by Anurodh in Ajay Shah's blog, 2024-04-26 04:34:00 UTC

  by Bhavin Patel and Renuka Sane . The Indian journey to decarbonisation faces the roadblocks of electricity policy . One of the critical impediments faced is that of state capability in electricity regulation. There is a new body of knowledge in India, in regulatory theory, that can usefully be brought to bear on the problem of improving electricity regulation. One element of this field is the question of assessing the state of regulatory capability. At any point in time, how would we judge the extent to which electricity regulation in a certain state is working well? Electricity is regulat [...]

2024-04-08

• 350+ coauthors study reproducibility in economics
  by ? in Marginal Revolution, 2024-04-08 06:49:37 UTC

  Jon Hartley is one I know, here is the abstract: This study pushes our understanding of research reliability by reproducing and replicating claims from 110 papers in leading economic and political science journals. The analysis involves computational repro [...]

2024-04-01

• 54. Publications of the Euro-American Association in year 2024: Articles and ebook Chapters
  by MCG Blogs de Economía in Euro-American Association: World Development, 2024-04-01 18:21:00 UTC

    Newly accepted articles for Volumes 24-1 of journals AEID and RSES Applied Econometrics and International Development (AEID), Volume 24-1: January-June 2024 Articles listed at the journal Website in March of 2024 Gender analysis of the global labour market and comparative analysis of kazakhstan, 2019-2021, Kuanysh ALPYSBAYEV, Aizhan MUKHAMADIYEVA, Meruert KANABEKOVA, Arailym ORAZGALIYEVA, Balapanova ELMIRA   Abstract Investment Policy of the Republic of Kazakhstan: Main Directions and Development Trends, Nurzan DEMEUOV, Ainur ISSAYEVA, Ardak YESDAULETOVA  Abstract Productivity and Regional T [...]

2024-03-29

• The Global Pharmaceutical Industry Isn’t Investing in Products for the Greatest Burden of Human Disease - Are Non-Profits a Solution?
  by Payal Arya, Fred Ledley in INET Blog, 2024-03-29 17:02:45 UTC

  Programs for expedited review may be preferentially reducing the development costs for conditions with lesser disease burden, potentially making investments in addressing the most significant disease burdens even less appealing and exacerbating the market failure further. The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that 1.7 billion people around the world are in need of measures to prevent or treat neglected tropical diseases (NTDs), conditions that collectively account for as many as 200,000 deaths/year and a burden of disease running in the hu [...]

2024-03-28

• The state of capitalism
  by michael roberts in Michael Roberts Blog, 2024-03-28 10:10:04 UTC

  The book, The State of Capitalism, is an ambitious work.  Written by the NAMe Collective with the lead from Professor Costas Lapavitsas from SOAS University, London, it seeks to analyse all aspects of capitalism in the 21 st century from a Marxist perspective.  It has been widely praised by the likes of Yanis Varoufakis and Grace Blakeley, leading rock stars of leftist economics. According to the authors, the book “is the outcome of collective writing that combines different types of knowledge and experience, while still finding a common voice. For several years, the European Research [...]

2024-03-22

• The European Union’s New Risk-Based Framework for Fiscal Rules – Overly Complex, Opaque and Self-Defeating
  by Helene Schuberth in INET Blog, 2024-03-22 14:03:00 UTC

  The discrepancy between technocratic rhetoric and economic facts is colossal. Introduction and Summary On February 10 th , 2024, representatives of the European Council, the European Parliament (EP), and the European Commission (EC) reached an agreement on yet another reform of the fiscal rules. [1] The legislative package still has to be approved by both the European Council and the European Parliament by the end of April 2024. While the new rules have thus far received little attention, they will shape the fate of the European Union (EU) economy [...]

2024-03-13

• Started from the Bottom: Bayesian SPNE and Probability in HRM
  by ? in The Labour Econ Blog, 2024-03-13 09:06:50 UTC

  by Alfred Anate Mayaki.   Bayes’ application to HRM is limited to event probability but is a topic that is mentioned in passing in a paper on shirking and presenteeism by S. Brown (2004) recommended by Dr. Andrew Bryce (Sheffield), which was written over 20 years ago this year. Brown (2004) reads as follows: “Such ‘shirking’ is potentially costly to firms and may incite them to undertake monitoring. BST** envisage a monitoring technology in which there is some probability, α < 1, of each absentee’s true state of health being revealed to the firm.” After deciding to initiate a brief scoping [...]

2024-03-11

• Two definitions of bubbles
  by ? in Econlog, 2024-03-11 03:14:53 UTC

  In a recent post , I pointed out that how we define words doesn’t matter when considering substantive issues. Thus whether addition is defined as a mental illness should have no bearing on how we treat addiction. An old Noah Smith Bloomberg column reminds me of how definitions can lead us astray. Smith points out that (in 2018) Bitcoin prices had recently crashed, after previously soaring to a peak of $19,000. He acknowledges that Bitcoin prices might boom again in the future, but nonetheless defines this as a “bubble”: But for ordinary investors, who don’t tend to get in early on potentiall [...]

2024-03-06

• Japan’s Self-Inflicted Decline
  by Daniel Gros in Project Syndicate, 2024-03-06 16:03:34 UTC

  MILAN – Japan should be doing well. It boasts a well-educated and disciplined workforce, and outdoes most other industrialized countries on both investment and spending on research and development . In fact, at 3.3% of GDP, Japanese R&D expenditure was higher even than that of the United States until recently. And yet, Japan’s relative decline continues. In the 1980s and 1990s, Japan was the world’s second-largest economy, not least because of its seemingly unbeatable industrial sector. Today, however, it is the world’s fourth-largest economy, with data showing that it recently fell behind G [...]

2024-02-25

• WTO ministerial trading in low expectations and high stakes
  by Ken Heydon in East Asia Forum, 2024-02-25 11:00:00 UTC

  The World Trade Organisation’s (WTO) 13th Ministerial Conference takes place in Abu Dhabi on 26–29 February. It is expected to include a deal providing transparency and predictability in electronic commerce, endorse an agreement on investment facilitation for development and admit two least developed countries, Timor Leste and the Comoros, as WTO members. Though welcome, these are modest expectations. This is particularly so given the promises from the 12th Ministerial Conference — tackling fisheries subsidies and offering the hope of restoring a ‘ fully functioning dispute settl [...]

2024-02-22

• The paradox of empowerment: gender norms and intimate partner violence in PNG
  by Alexander Smith in Development Policy Blog, 2024-02-22 19:00:32 UTC

  Intimate partner violence (IPV) is a global scourge, with nearly one in three women experiencing violence at the hands of a partner at least once in their lifetime. Rates of violence are particularly high in PNG, where the prevalence rate is one in two women. How do we change this? It is tempting to think that improving the disparity in resources or economic status between women and their partners would be an effective mechanism to reduce financial dependence and improve women’s ability to leave violent relationships. This logic is known as the household bargaining theory. It proposes that ind [...]

2024-02-16

• How AI deepfakes threaten the 2024 elections
  by Rehan Mirza in Journalist's Resource, 2024-02-16 18:41:26 UTC

  Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Reddit Email Last month, a robocall impersonating U.S. President Joe Biden went out to New Hampshire voters, advising them not to vote in the state’s presidential primary election.  The voice, generated by artificial intelligence, sounded quite real. “Save your vote for the November election,” the voice stated, falsely asserting that a vote in the primary would prevent voters from being able to participate in the November general election.   The robocall incident reflects a growing concern that generative AI will make it cheaper and easier to spread misin [...]

2024-02-14

• Pakistan’s Middle-Class Rage Against Military Rule
  by Adeel Malik in Project Syndicate, 2024-02-14 16:05:43 UTC

  OXFORD – Pakistan’s general election on February 8, marred by allegations of widespread voting irregularities, resulted in a hung parliament and the formation of a coalition government consisting of the country’s two major dynastic parties. Nevertheless, the outcome represents a stunning defeat for the country’s powerful military, as candidates backed by the imprisoned former Prime Minister Imran Khan ’s Tehreek-e-Insaf Party (PTI) secured more parliamentary seats than any other political bloc despite a two-year crackdown on its voters and supporters. Although PTI did not win enough seats t [...]

• A Negative Income Tax, One Step at a Time
  by Ed Dolan in Ed Dolan's Econ Blog, 2024-02-14 14:52:00 UTC

  The negative income tax (NIT) sometimes seems like the carbon tax of social policy. Both are irresistibly appealing to economists and have long pedigrees. Both are supported by blindingly persuasive logic. Yet neither policy seems capable of mustering much political support in 21st-century Washington politics. I see two things as essential in repackaging the NIT for today’s America. The first essential is to recognize the reality of path dependency — the need to start from where we are, not from a clean slate, and take things one step at a time.  Gerald Gaus  calls that approach “exploring the [...]

2024-02-01

• Saving for college
  by ? in FRED blog, 2024-02-01 14:00:00 UTC

  The FRED Blog has discussed the income and wealth boosts from graduating college (a.k.a. the college premium ). This premium does seem to justify the expense of a college education, and today we discuss how to pay for it by using a 529 saving plan. 529 plans are named after the section of the federal tax code that rules their treatment. The FRED graph above shows data from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System reporting the dollar value of savings held in two types of 529 plans: College saving plans (the blue area): These are purchased shares in mutual funds administered by st [...]

2024-01-11

• Are Things Really that Bad?
  by noreply@blogger.com (Michael Ward) in Managerial Econ, 2024-01-11 17:31:00 UTC

  Binsbergen, Bryzgalova, Mukhopadhyay, and Sharma develop an index of economic sentiment for the US (and individual states) from accumulated news reports. They use a historical collection of 170 years of digitized newspapers, which includes the text of 200 million newspaper pages from 13,000 local newspapers, collecting instances of a bunch of keywords like "profitable", "success", "opportunity" versus "failure", "insolvent", or "unsuccessful". It turns out it predicts economic activity quite well. � � � � � � However, the authors also note that sentiment trends downward significantly over the [...]

2024-01-10

• ASSA 2024 part two – the radical sessions: imperialism, profitability and climate change
  by michael roberts in Michael Roberts Blog, 2024-01-10 09:40:41 UTC

  Within the huge ASSA meeting, there are sessions organized by heterodox economics associations, in particular, by the Union of Radical Political Economics (URPE) .  Attendance at these sessions is small, but the quality of the papers is large. Let me start with annual David Gordon lecture hosted by URPE at ASSA every year.  Each year, a leading radical economist gives a lecture on a subject of choice.  This year, David McNally gave the 25 th lecture on Marx on Colonization: The End of Capital and the Beginning of a Journey .  David McNally has contributed a Marxist perspective on many impo [...]

2024-01-01

• Child Penalty amid Korea's Declining Fertility
  by jisoohwang@snu.ac.kr (Jisoo Hwang) in Asia Economics Blog, 2024-01-01 09:26:51 UTC

  Co-author: Inkyung Yoo.   With the gender gap in educational attainment narrowing, “child penalty” – the effect of parenthood on labor market outcomes – is considered the largest remaining obstacle in eliminating the gender pay gap in developed countries. Recent studies show that women’s earnings drop significantly following first childbirth whereas men’s earnings remain largely unaffected. Various policies are being discussed and studied with the goal of reducing the child penalty. However, from an individual woman's perspective, there is a sure way to avoid the child penalty – to not have a [...]

2023-12-28

• Annual Review 2023
  by noreply@blogger.com (David Stern) in Stochastic Trend, 2023-12-28 05:49:00 UTC

  I've been doing these annual reviews since 2011. They're mainly an exercise for me to see what I accomplished and what I didn't in the previous year.  The big new development this year is that together with Johannes Sauer and Eric Yu Sheng I took on the joint editor-in-chief role of the Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics . My goal, apart from the usual ones of increasing the impact, prestige, and outreach of the journal, is to get more environmental and resource economics papers published in the journal. So, if you have a suitable paper, please send it to us! We started [...]

2023-12-21

• Research Review | 21 DEC 2023 | Portfolio Design & Risk Factors
  by James Picerno in The Capital Spectator, 2023-12-21 12:12:07 UTC

  Factor Zoo (.zip) Alexander Swade (Lancaster University) et al. October 2023 The number of factors allegedly driving the cross-section of stock returns has grown steadily over time. We explore how much this ‘factor zoo’ can be compressed, focusing on explaining the available alpha rather than the covariance matrix of factor returns. Our findings indicate that about 15 factors are enough to span the entire factor zoo. This evidence suggests that many factors are redundant but also that merely using a handful of factors, as in common asset pricing models, is insufficient. While the selected fact [...]

2023-12-18

• Florida Is Shunning the People Who Helped Build It
  by Fiona Harrigan in Hit & Run blog, 2023-12-18 11:00:23 UTC

  In 1980, Florida experienced an immigration restrictionist's worst nightmare: a huge, rapid, and unauthorized influx of largely unskilled migrants. That event was the  Mariel boatlift , a mass migration that followed Cuban dictator Fidel Castro's April 1980 announcement that Cubans wishing to leave the country could do so. In just six months, 125,000 Cuban immigrants  arrived  in Florida, half of them  settling  in Miami. "Observers in Miami at the time of the Boatlift noted the strain caused by the Mariel immigration," wrote Uni [...]

2023-12-15

• Health Capacity to Work among Older Malaysians
  by dpark@adb.org (Donghyun Park) in Asia Economics Blog, 2023-12-15 11:00:10 UTC

  Co-authors: Norma Mansor; Halimah Awang Malaysia is experiencing a demographic transition characterized by a steady increase in the number and proportion of elderly persons in the population. The share of population over age 65 is projected to rise from 7.5 percent in 2020 to 14.5 percent in 2040. Yet even as health and longevity have improved greatly, employment rates among older workers have declined. Extension of the working life would benefit older persons by augmenting income security and providing a sense of fulfillment. It would benefit society at large by mitigating worker shortages an [...]

2023-12-14

• The insured unemployment rate : Those receiving vs. those eligible for unemployment insurance benefits
  by ? in FRED blog, 2023-12-14 14:00:00 UTC

  Background The overall unemployment rate is a key macroeconomic indicator that economists, policymakers, and the media follow closely. The Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates it from a monthly survey of households that tallies the number of those not employed but looking for work divided by the total labor force, which itself is the sum of employed workers plus the number of those not employed but looking for work. A separate unemployment measure that receives less attention is the insured unemployment rate : It is the number of workers currently claiming unemployment insurance benefits rel [...]

2023-11-26

• Économie numérique : le bilan comptable reflète mal la valeur économique des entreprises
  by The Conversation in Contrepoints, 2023-11-26 03:30:04 UTC

  Auteur : Anne Jeny, Professor, Accounting Department, IÉSEG School of Management Les processus de création de valeur ont connu d’importantes évolutions ces dernières années. Comparons par exemple Google (Alphabet), un étendard de la nouvelle économie et une entreprise relevant du secteur industriel traditionnel, comme le constructeur automobile General Motors. La réussite de Google apparaît au travers de sa capitalisation boursière, celle-ci atteignant  1148 milliards de dollars pour environ 190 234 salariés  fin 2022. General Motors affiche pour sa part une capitalisation boursière vingt fois [...]

2023-11-15

• WeInflate, WeMalinvest, WeWork
  by Tyler Durden in Zero Hedge, 2023-11-15 03:55:00 UTC

  WeInflate, WeMalinvest, WeWork Authored by Peter C. Earle via the American Institute for Economic Research , The bankruptcy filing of WeWork Inc. on November 6, 2023 came with neither a whimper nor a bang, but with a laconic shrug . Although the company has been around for 13 years, it has been defined more by successive flirtations with demise and unseemly corporate revelations than by innovative ideas for the second half of its life. Few were surprised when the latest, and possibly not the final, chapter arrived. While some stories are better told starting at the end, the We [...]

2023-10-22

• Weekend reading links
  by noreply@blogger.com (Urbanomics) in Urbanomics, 2023-10-22 04:36:00 UTC

  1. In terms of annualised returns for several time periods, the Indian stock market tops , slightly superior to even the S&P 500. While there's no doubt that for investors looking at the next decade and more, India stands at the pole position in terms of economic prospects. A large economy with relatively stable macroeconomic policies and domestic consumption being the predominant growth driver means that it's well placed to grow.   But the big worry is the nature of its growth. In particular, the widening inequality and the relatively low growth in incomes for the vast majority is the problem [...]

2023-10-06

• Paved with Unintended Consequences
  by ? in Econlog, 2023-10-06 12:00:27 UTC

  Economists, especially those of us who criticize government interventionist policies, often point to bad unintended consequences that many of these policies lead to. Sometimes people say that we delight in pointing to such policies, but that verb certainly doesn’t apply to my attitude. There is typically nothing delightful at all in these consequences, many of them tragic. In this piece, I’ll cover six cases, but they’re a tiny fraction of the cases that exist and even a tiny fraction of the cases I know. We need to distinguish between unintended and unpredicted consequences. Many unintended [...]

2023-09-20

• Warum Biden größere Chancen auf eine Wiederwahl hat, als viele denken
  by ? in Makronom, 2023-09-20 21:58:56 UTC

  Die Amerikaner sehen sowohl die wirtschaftliche Lage als auch die Arbeit von Präsident Joe Biden sehr kritisch. Dennoch dürften die Demokraten mehr Grund für Optimismus haben, als die jüngsten Umfragen vermuten lassen. [...]

2023-09-14

• Why does women’s employment change with the seasons? : An answer from the NBER
  by ? in FRED blog, 2023-09-14 13:00:00 UTC

  Summer is ending. As the new school year gears up, some areas of economic activity will get seasonal boosts—such as increases in retail sales of office supplies as incoming students and their families buy what they need for the classroom. Female employment also picks up at this time of year. Recent research on labor markets finds that the childcare services provided by formal schooling drive this increase in employment. The FRED graph above replicates Figure 1 in a related piece of research: the NBER Working Paper, “ The Summer Drop in Female Employment ,” by Brendan Price and Melanie Wasserm [...]

2023-09-05

• Gender income disparity in the USA
  by Ivan Kitov in Economics as Classical Mechanics, 2023-09-05 20:26:00 UTC

   This paper "Gender income disparity in the USA: analysis and dynamic modelling" is also of interest Abstract We analyze and develop a quantitative model describing the evolution of personal income distribution (PID) for males and females in the U.S. between 1930 and 2014. The overall microeconomic model, which we introduced ten years ago, accurately predicts the change in mean income as a function of age as well as the dependence on age of the portion of people distributed according to the Pareto law. As a result, we have precisely described the change in the Gini ratio since the start of inc [...]

• Race and gender income inequality in the USA: black women vs. white men
  by Ivan Kitov in Economics as Classical Mechanics, 2023-09-05 20:23:00 UTC

  Almost every day, I have a request to publish this paper " Race and gender income inequality in the USA: black women vs. white men" � in medical and social journals. Do not understand the reason for such an interest.�� Abstract Income inequality between different races in the U.S. is especially large. This difference is even larger when gender is involved. In a complementary study, we have developed a dynamic microeconomic model accurately describing the evolution of male and female incomes since 1930. Here, we extend our analysis and model the disparity between the black and white population [...]

2023-08-31

• The High Costs of Biden's Price-Controlled Drugs
  by Ronald Bailey in Hit & Run blog, 2023-08-31 21:09:02 UTC

  Government-imposed price controls on goods and services always lead to shortages. For example, economic research has consistently shown that rent control results in less new housing construction . The Biden administration's imposition of price caps on prescription drugs under the provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) will result in much the same thing: fewer new cures developed. The IRA gives the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) the [...]

• Neo-kaleckianos e Historia Económica. ¿Qué sabemos sobre los “regímenes de crecimiento”?
  by HenryW in Pasado y Presente de la Economia Mundial, 2023-08-31 19:15:53 UTC

  Pablo Marmissolle (Universidad de la República, Uruguay) Pablo Marmissolle es docente de Historia Económica Mundial y Desarrollo Económico del Uruguay en la Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración (FCEA) de la Universidad de la República (UdelaR), Uruguay, así como investigador en Historia Económica del Instituto de Economía (IECON) de esa misma Facultad. Es Licenciado y Magíster en Economía por la UdelaR y estudiante de Doctorado en Historia Económica en la Universidad de Valencia, España. RESUMEN. Los modelos neo-kaleckianos basados en el trabajo de Bhaduri & Marglin ( [...]

2023-08-24

• Why We Can't Have Nice Things: Bootleggers, Baptists, and Ballots
  by Eric Boehm in Hit & Run blog, 2023-08-24 17:00:47 UTC

  Arkansas has some of the strangest liquor laws in the country—or at least the most politically contentious. Unlike a lot of other places, the state allows counties to hold referendums to decide whether they will allow the retail sale of alcohol. That is, whether they will be "wet" or "dry." And when those elections take place, it's often existing liquor stores—the very businesses that earn money by selling booze—that campaign the hardest to keep county-lev [...]

2023-08-14

• AI is going to eliminate way more jobs than anyone realizes
  by insider@insider.com (Emil Skandul) in Business Insider, 2023-08-14 10:00:02 UTC

  The AI revolution is about the crash into the global economy and upend millions of jobs. Arantza Pena Popo/Insider A tidal wave is about to crash into the global economy.  The rise of artificial intelligence has captured our imagination for decades, in whimsical movies and sober academic texts. Despite this speculation, the emergence of public, easy-to-use AI tools over the past year has been a jolt, like the future arrived years ahead of schedule. Now this long-expected, all-too-sudden technological revolution is ready to upend the economy.  A March Goldman Sachs report found over 300 million [...]

2023-07-31

• The monetary multiplier and bank reserves
  by ? in FRED blog, 2023-07-31 13:00:00 UTC

  The FRED graph above shows two different measures of money between 2005 and 2010: The red line tracks M2, which includes cash, checking deposits, and other short-term deposits. The green line tracks the monetary base, or M0, which includes only cash and bank reserves. The ratio of M2 to M0 (blue line) is often referred to as the “money multiplier,” a measure that describes how the  supply of private money (deposits) responds to the monetary base: As banks accumulate excess reserves in their account, they expand their deposits and lending activities. Between December 2007 and January 2009, M2 [...]

2023-07-27

• El costo de ser un nativo digital: efectos del acceso a internet en el desarrollo infantil
  by Natalia Nollenberger in Razones y personas: repensando Uruguay, 2023-07-27 22:37:00 UTC

  Por Karina Colombo y Elisa Failache En los últimos años, la exposición a dispositivos conectados a Internet de alta velocidad ha aumentado considerablemente a nivel mundial. [1] Las tecnologías son cada vez más comunes en nuestro día a día y el tiempo que pasamos conectados es cada vez mayor. Este fenómeno no es específico de las personas adultas, niños y niñas usan pantallas de forma cada vez más frecuente desde muy pequeños/as. [2] Uruguay no es ajeno a esta situación. Según datos de la Encuesta Nacional de Desarrollo Infantil y Salud del 2018, un 13% de niños/as menores de 12 meses mira a [...]

2023-07-26

• Are the Benefits of Electrification Realized Only in the Long Run? Evidence from Rural India
  by noreply@blogger.com (David Stern) in Stochastic Trend, 2023-07-26 06:42:00 UTC

    I have a new working paper coauthored with my master's student Suryadeepto Nag on the impact of rural electrification in India. Surya did his master's at IISER in Pune with me as his supervisor. He visited Canberra over the last Southern Summer. The effect of providing households with access to electricity has been a popular research topic. It's still not clear how large the benefits of such interventions are. Is electricity access an investment that generates growth? Or is it more of a consumption good that growing economies can afford? Researchers have used traditional econometric methods [...]

2023-07-19

• Fiscal conservatism, economic radicalism
  by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling, 2023-07-19 12:19:03 UTC

  Sir Keir Starmer has ruled out significant rises in public spending under a Labour government. He's partly right. What his supporters and many critics fail to appreciate, however, is that a tight fiscal stance is wholly consistent with some very left-wing policies. First, why is he partly right? The answer has nothing to do with "iron-clad fiscal rules". Such talk is merely to appease the nonces, imbeciles and billionaires' gimps in the media. Instead, Labour's problem is that we are close to effective full employment; certainly, there are very few doctors or builders out of work. This means [...]

2023-07-06

• Trends in the construction of multifamily housing : The missing middle
  by ? in FRED blog, 2023-07-06 13:00:00 UTC

  The FRED Blog has discussed the relationship between single-family housing starts and completions and also how changes in overall housing market prices are measured . Today we build on the topic of housing by comparing trends in the type of residential constructions erected. The FRED graph above shows data from the US Census and the US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) on the number of new, privately owned, completed housing units since 1968. There are three size types: single-family buildings (the blue area), buildings with 2 to 4 separate dwellings (the red area), and buildi [...]

• There is no recession threat in the USA due to immigration
  by Ivan Kitov in Economics as Classical Mechanics, 2023-07-06 09:32:00 UTC

  Immigration saves the US as it is able to mechanically increase real GDP just by population growth. The labor force growth drives inflation up as it was in the late 1960s and 1970s (women changed the rate of participation in labor force from ~50% to 80-90% just within one decade). The Fed has the only tool to put the rate of price inflation down - increase the overnight rate. As the real GDP has been growing in the previous couple of years mainly due to mechanical population increase (the population growth rate is back to 1.5% per year as in the 1990s) , there overnight rate does not have the [...]

2023-07-03

• Geopolitical Fragmentation, Regional Cooperation, and Prospects for ASEAN Trade and Value Chains
  by mplummer@jhubc.it (Michael Plummer) in Asia Economics Blog, 2023-07-03 14:10:46 UTC

  Introduction ASEAN countries are characterized by considerable diversity but share an outward-oriented development strategy. While intra-regional economic cooperation over the past two decades has been important, global, not regional, interaction has been the key to ASEAN’s success story.  Hence, the strong policy headwinds facing globalization in the post-Covid period threaten continued growth and prosperity in the region. Proposals in major markets to protect domestic industries by raising obstacles to trade vary from sectoral protection to more comprehensive “geopolitical” or “geoeconomic” [...]

2023-07-02

• Quotation of the Day…
  by Don Boudreaux in Cafe Hayek, 2023-07-02 08:30:00 UTC

  (Don Boudreaux) Tweet … is from page 85 of University of Connecticut economist Richard Langlois’s monumental 2023 study, The Corporation and the Twentieth Century (original emphasis; footnotes deleted; links added): The laissez-faire economists [around the turn of the 20th century], and often even their opponents, did not think in terms of an efficient equilibrium of prices, quantities, and number of firms; rather, following Adam Smith, they had a dynamic view of competition as active striving . Active competition took place along many margins, including both innovation and entry. The resu [...]

2023-07-01

• Cyberattaques dans les hôpitaux, universités, administrations… Comment mieux résister ?
  by The Conversation in Contrepoints, 2023-07-01 02:40:00 UTC

  Par Mohammed Chergui-Darif et Bruno Tiberghien.   Collectivités territoriales, administrations publiques, hôpitaux , écoles et universités , aucune de ces organisations publiques n’est à l’abri des cyberattaques , que la Défense française définit comme : « (toute) action volontaire, offensive et malveillante, menée au travers du cyberespace et destinée à provoquer un dommage (en disponibilité, intégrité ou confidentialité) aux informations ou aux systèmes qui les traitent, pouvant ainsi nuire aux activités dont ils sont le support. » Selon l’Agence de l’Union européenne pour la cybersécurité [...]